". . . but I have MILES TO GO before I sleep, miles to go before I sleep." Robert Frost

that investors are pulling back money after short gains in recent months.
Long, boring industry critique to follow.
One of the two reasons for pessimism regarding the speed of the nation's recession recovery cited is that two railroads gave gloomy forecasts for future earnings.
This is a case of misdirection in my view and here's why :
Railroads increased business during the recession as trucking companies were hit hard by increases in fuel prices. Trucking outfits went bankrupt by the THOUSANDS and that doesn't even include the number of one-truck companies that are one guy, his truck, and his hopeful business. They went under in staggering numbers.
Shippers saw the effect on trucking, and turned to rail. Rail handles about 30% of frieght in this country, and of course not only do trucks handle over 70%, but they also have a slice of railroad's 30% due to the fact that frieght trains don't deliver to the back door of your local grocer, trucks do.

So the article I read is very misleading when an ecomonist points out that rail is an early indicator of economic times; TRANSPORTATION in general is an early indicator, and trucking specifically is the best early indicator (I left work in late mid 2007 in part because I saw this coming but of course Bush still had his head up his . . . oh, never mind).
Anyway, many shippers chose to try something that has been increasing in popularity and that rail has been trying to take advantage of recently (the past 10 years) - its called intermodal transport. Stuff leaves the plant in a truck pulling a container - those big steel boxes you see on trains and in ports. We have special trailer frames so the boxes become instant highway trailers when locked down. But instead of an over the road driver like me taking it to it's destination 900 miles away, the intermodal driver brings it to the nearest rail yard. There it is transferred to a flatcar, shipped to the destination city, then ANOTHER TRUCK DRIVER picks it up to bring it to the store, the distribution center, the manufacturing plant, whatever. This is how I lost my long term assignment with General Mills a few months ago. This is how the numbers for rail looked great last year and the execs thought they had a trend on their hands, that rail was about to increase its share of overall general frieght movement. They were/are wrong. Manufacturing schedules can not be met by rail supply - they are too slow. Urgent orders can not be processed using rail supply - the tracks are just as crowded as the highways and they do not have anything in place to grow any type of 'expedited' movement of goods (where-as a truck company can pull a driver off one delivery and put him on another immediately, or a team can be assigned so the frieght, as on a train, can move 24/7 and be cross country in a day and a half.

* some might say "wait - if he said a train can deliver frieght in a day and a half, where's the argument FOR trucking?". As I said, that freight on a train ONLY travels from point A to point B in that day and a half, it first had to get ON the train, then had to be scheduled to run cross country, then had to be delivered OFF the train to the consignee - I'll match trucking's door to door to rail any day *

So right now, after last year, manufacturers and shippers are learning that though they DID save money by switching to intermodal, they lost as much, if not more, in productivity.
Fuel prices are coming down, shippers are taking advantage of even lower rates in trucking. Part of the reason little outfits are going under is that they can't compete with a big firm like Schneider or Crete - those two have THOUSANDS of trucks completing deliveries every day - they can afford to price their service so that they only make $25 per load - hell, with 4,000 trucks a day, the firm is then still making 36 MILLION a year AFTER expenses! Show me an owner operator who can survive on $25 profit for a load that took him 2 days to deliver.
SO, the fact is, that trucking survived the great oil spike of 2008, downsized, laid off, cut back, low balled, cut corners, and bruised and bloodied, is shaking it off in 2009 with great expectations for 2010. Rail will lose the business they gained and still be hampered by their infrastructure problems. (you've heard of "truck only" toll lanes that some have proposed? it is mostly for safety reason. Rail wants a govt bail out to help them establish more track dedicated to helping them MAKE MORE MONEY.
And that just won't happen and so the execs this week put out negative growth projections for 2010 which for reasons I don't understand, media economists bought hook, line, and sinker as an indicator for the U.S. economy instead of what it is, an indicator for rail. The downturn for rail is not because of the economy of 2009, it is a "correction" as they call it, for the economy of 2008.
I'm not happy with the hits we truck drivers had to take, but I'm a lot more confident this fall than I have been since the spring of 2007. The next windmill to tilt at for us is probably equally unbeatable, and that is to get companies to pay us what we earn, and for the government to regulate pay in the industry and outlaw per-mile pay for driving. Sure, the trucking firms can charge clients per mile, but as an employee, I deserve pay for my time from door to door, not only the time spent with the wheels turning.
My thoughts, and I expressed them back in 2007, is that THIS is the time for trucking to make that change - consumer prices have risen little because trucking cut fees to keep business. Trucking likely will not increase fees even though fuel prices are now down - they should, however, and they should use that profit to restructure driver pay.